Swiss Watch Industry Federation (FH) Export Market Dynamics Analysis for May 2025

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May Watch Market Review

Swiss Watch Export Performance in May 2025:

In May 2025, Swiss watch exports totaled 2.1 billion CHF, down 9.5% year-on-year, primarily due to a demand slowdown in the U.S. market (following a peak in April driven by anticipated tariff hikes).

Year-to-date (up to May), exports showed a 4.1% increase, but actual sales trends remained weak, indicating a gap between export figures and real sales.

Export Performance by Material:

• Precious metal watches: Down 9.0%, relatively stable but still declining.
• Steel watches: Down 9.3%, also relatively stable.
• Bimetal watches: More significant decline of 12.6%.
• Other materials: Sharp decline of 38.4%, significantly dragging down overall exports.

Year-to-date, total exports remained stable (up 13.4%), but other material categories performed poorly.

Key Market Performance:

• U.S.: Exports at 28.2 (assumed million CHF), down 2.3%, market share unspecified.
• China: Exports at 15.5, down 1.5%.
• Hong Kong: Exports at 15.6, down 1.6%.
• Singapore: Exports at 10.3, down 1.3%.
• Switzerland (domestic market): Exports at 10.6, down 1.6%.
• Total market exports: 106.8 (unit unspecified), down 1.6%.

Market Trends and Influencing Factors:

• The U.S. market slowdown follows advance purchasing in April due to expected tariff increases, with May’s decline within expectations.
• Other key markets (China, Hong Kong, Singapore) showed slight declines, reflecting global demand weakness.
• Year-to-date growth (4.1%) is driven by earlier accumulated demand, but actual sales trends are less optimistic than export data.

Market Dynamics and Challenges:

• Swiss watches, as luxury goods, are heavily influenced by global economic conditions, tariff policies, and consumer confidence. The U.S. market’s volatility (April surge, May decline) highlights the significant impact of tariff policies on short-term export behavior.
• Slight declines in China and Hong Kong may reflect local economic slowdowns or reduced consumer interest in luxury goods.
• The sharp 38.4% drop in other material categories may indicate lower demand for lower-priced or non-traditional material watches, requiring further investigation.

Material Trends and Product Positioning:

• The relatively stable performance of precious metal and steel watches suggests resilience in high-end and mid-range markets, but the larger decline in bimetal watches may indicate a consumer shift toward single-material products.
• The sharp decline in other material categories may relate to reduced market acceptance of innovative materials (e.g., ceramics, composites) or increased competition, warranting further analysis.

Long-Term Trends and Outlook:

• Year-to-date growth (13.4%) indicates potential in the Swiss watch industry, but weak actual sales suggest overestimated market demand, with risks of inventory buildup.
• Widespread declines across major markets (though moderate) may signal slower export growth in coming months, especially amid heightened geopolitical or economic uncertainty.
• The Swiss watch industry should focus on market diversification, exploring emerging markets (e.g., Southeast Asia, Middle East) to mitigate risks, while enhancing product innovation to address challenges in material categories.

Summary:

In May 2025, Swiss watch exports reached 2.1 billion CHF, down 9.5%, driven by a U.S. market slowdown (following an April surge due to tariff expectations). Year-to-date growth was 4.1%, but actual sales remained weak. Precious metal and steel watches fell 9.0% and 9.3%, respectively, bimetal watches dropped 12.6%, and other materials plummeted 38.4%. Major markets (U.S., China, Hong Kong, Singapore) saw slight declines.